What you call is not what answers
DeepSeek announced that `deepseek-v4-pro` would be served by another model, at another price; OpenAI turned the agent harness into a managed product; and the yardstick every comparison uses changed scale the Monday before. Five movements on what changes without your code changing.
On Thursday, 10 September, DeepSeek launched V4.1-Flash and, in the same notice, wrote a line worth more than the model: from 04:00 UTC on 14 September, every call to `deepseek-v4-pro` would be served by V4.1-Flash, billed at its rate, until V4.1-Pro ships.[1] Nobody needs to change a line of code to be affected. The same day, OpenAI opened the Agents API in public beta, an agent harness in which it handles the session, context compaction and failure recovery.[4] And three days earlier, Artificial Analysis changed the version of the index almost every model comparison cites: v4.3 lowered everyone's score.[6]
This edition's thesis: what changed the bill for people running agents this week was not a new model. It was three layers sitting between your code and the model — the name you call, the harness that executes and the yardstick that compares — and all three changed without asking. Whoever puts an agent in production needs to pin versions, log which model answered each call and keep an evaluation of their own, because neither the name, nor the orchestration, nor the public scoreboard stays still.
The movements follow that order: the alias that changes model, the harness that becomes a product, the yardstick that moved, the two scoreboards that measure agents, and the Brazilian AI plan money that has already become a tender — with a correction to our own panel. If you only have time for one: the third.
Judgments
- 1
By the end of 2026, another major API provider will do what DeepSeek did: serve an existing model name with a different model, at another price, by a changelog notice.
- 2
The Agents API leaves beta by 31 March 2027, and the managed harness becomes OpenAI's default path for new agents.
- 3
The next version of the Artificial Analysis index will move absolute scores enough to break any fixed cut. Whoever uses the index as a threshold needs a relative rule, like the one the panel adopted.
- 4
GPT-6 Astra loses first place on SWE-bench Science by 31 March 2027.
- 5
The RHAE IA call's result comes out by 31 December 2026 and commits the full R$ 50 million.
Panel
How each indicator is measured
- Closed frontier price.
- List price, short context, of the most expensive general-purpose model among OpenAI, Anthropic and Google on the edition's day.
- Permissive open price.
- Since no. 2: list output price, on the lab's own API, of the open-weight model under MIT or Apache 2.0 ranked highest on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Up to no. 1 it was the lowest price among permissive open models with an index ≥ 55 — a cut that the index's new scale (v4.3, 7 September) left with no model at all.
- The scissors.
- Ratio between the two indicators above. It measures the distance in price, not in capability.
- Terminal-Bench 4.0 ceiling.
- Highest published score on the current Terminal-Bench version, self-reported or independent — always stated which. When the version changes, the series restarts.
- SWE-bench Science ceiling.
- Best model on the leaderboard kept by the OpenMOSS group (Fudan), independent of vendors. 119 tasks: differences of a few points are noise.
- PBIA: money that became a tender.
- Sum of published tenders and calls with a fixed value and a deadline whose object declares Brazil's AI Plan (R$ 23 billion announced for 2024–2028). Announcements, partnerships without a tender and funds with a commitment range instead of a value do not count.
The alias that changes model
DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash has 552 billion parameters and uses 8 to read and 16 to write. The news, though, is something else: according to the company's notice, from 14 September whoever calls `deepseek-v4-pro` gets this model.
On 10 September DeepSeek published V4.1-Flash, with weights on Hugging Face under the MIT license. It is a 552-billion-parameter mixture-of-experts with an architecture the company calls Causal Encoder–Decoder: 40 layers, 8 billion active parameters when reading the prompt (prefill) and 16 billion when generating (decode). The attention cache takes a quarter of the GPU memory it would otherwise need, and an eighth when it goes to SSD.1,2 All numbers are DeepSeek's; none had been replicated by a third party at closing.
The Hugging Face repository metadata show 763 billion parameters; the announcement says 552, and neither document explains the gap. We use the announcement's number.
See the data
| billion parameters | |
|---|---|
| Model total | 552 |
| Active when writing (decode) | 16 |
| Active when reading (prefill) | 8 |
Separating reading from writing is the week's technical idea: the prompt, which in agents is usually much larger than the answer, goes through half the parameters that writing uses. But the line that changes the bill for anyone already using DeepSeek is in the same notice, three paragraphs down: from 04:00 UTC on 14 September, calls to deepseek-v4-pro are served by V4.1-Flash and billed at its rate, “until V4.1-Pro launches”. deepseek-v4-flash and the experimental vision model were retired the same day, and the recommended name is now deepseek-flash, with no version.1 Table 1 sums up who answers each name.
| Name called | Who answers after 14 Sep | Billed as |
|---|---|---|
deepseek-flash | V4.1-Flash | V4.1-Flash |
deepseek-v4-flash | V4.1-Flash (V4-Flash was retired) | V4.1-Flash |
deepseek-v4-flash-vision-exp | V4.1-Flash (the experimental model was retired) | V4.1-Flash |
deepseek-v4-pro | V4.1-Flash, until V4.1-Pro ships | V4.1-Flash |
On this edition's publication date, DeepSeek's pricing page lists V4-Pro (version 0813) at its own price — US$ 3.96 per million output tokens at peak hours, US$ 1.98 off-peak —, and the 10 September notice is still up, with no reversal note. [1, 3] The two pages do not agree, and DeepSeek has not said which one holds.
Pointing an old name at a new model is nothing new — every provider does it with aliases like latest. What changes here is that deepseek-v4-pro looked like a fixed name, with a version in the name itself, and now points to a model of another family, with a different size and a different price. For anyone with an agent in production, the consequences are concrete: the evaluation that approved V4 Pro no longer applies to what is answering; the invoice changes with no code change; and a log that stores only the name called does not say which model produced each answer.
The harness became a product
OpenAI's Agents API takes over the session, context compaction and failure recovery — the part of the agent every team used to write on its own. Less code to maintain; more state kept in someone else's house.
On 10 September OpenAI opened the Agents API in public beta. The company describes it as a managed Codex harness: it handles session orchestration, context compaction when the window fills up, and recovery when something fails. A session is “a durable instance of an agent” that spans turns; progress arrives by streaming or webhook; the agent uses the customer's own tools and MCP servers; and it runs in a sandbox hosted by OpenAI, on the customer's infrastructure (type: self_hosted) or with a partner provider.4,5 The beta label is in the code itself: the client.beta.agents namespace and the OpenAI-Beta: agents=v1 header.5
Until now, the harness — the loop that calls the model, runs the tool, keeps state, summarizes the context when it overflows and restarts after an error — was your team's code, written by hand or built on a framework. It is the part of the agent that shows least in demos and breaks most in production. Table 2 shows what moves to OpenAI and what stays with you.
| Part of the agent | With the Agents API | In your own harness |
|---|---|---|
| Session state | Durable session, kept by OpenAI | Wherever you decide to keep it |
| Context compaction | OpenAI's rule | Your rule, testable |
| Failure recovery | OpenAI's | Yours |
| Tools | Your tools and MCP servers | Your tools and MCP servers |
| Where code runs | OpenAI's sandbox, yours, or a partner's | Wherever you run it |
| Progress | Streaming or webhook | Whatever you implement |
The description of capabilities is OpenAI's own. The date and the “public beta” label come from the changelog.
The trade is less code for more dependency, and the dependency sits exactly on the hardest part to migrate: state. An agent whose history lives in a vendor session, compacted by the vendor's rules, does not move to another model by changing one line. Running the sandbox on your own server reduces the sensitive-data problem, not the state problem. Before adopting it, test two things with fake data: whether you can export the whole session in a format you can read, and what the agent still knows after compaction runs.
The operational week
The rest of the week's changelog is for people already in production. On 8 September, OpenAI shipped prompt-cache diagnostics — to find out why a call missed the cache you expected. On 10 September, project API keys started accepting an expiration date, and GPT-Live 1, the real-time voice model, left preview.4 None of it makes headlines. All of it cuts the bill or the risk for whoever already operates: a key that expires on its own is one less leaked key, and a cache that explains itself is money that stops leaking unseen.
Everyone lost ten points
Version 4.3 of the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index swapped two tests and gave more weight to private sets. Scores fell by 8 to 15 points, the ranking barely moved — and every fixed cut based on the index stopped working, including our panel's.
On Monday, 7 September, Artificial Analysis published version 4.3 of its Intelligence Index — the number almost every model comparison cites, this one included. Three changes: Terminal-Bench 2.1 gave way to Terminal-Bench 4.0, weighted at 10%; τ³-Banking gave way to AutomationBench-AA, at 5%; and the private sets, which no lab can see before the test, went from 40% to 45% of the index.6 The ranking barely moved: GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1 tied at 53, Claude Opus 5 at 51, GPT-5.6 Sol at 47. The scores did move. Figure 2 shows the same six models on both yardsticks.
v4.3 publishes whole-number scores. DeepSeek V4 Pro was left out because the measured version changed between the two readings.
See the data
| v4.2 (4 Sep) | v4.3 (7 Sep) | |
|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 | 65.7 | 53.0 |
| Claude Opus 5 | 63.0 | 51.0 |
| GPT-6 Astra | 61.2 | 53.0 |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 58.9 | 47.0 |
| GLM-5.3-Flash (open, MIT) | 57.5 | 42.0 |
| GPT-5.6 Terra | 55.0 | 42.0 |
Opus 5 and Astra swapped places (63.0 against 61.2 on v4.2; 51 against 53 on v4.3) and Fable 5.1 dropped into a tie with Astra — two-point differences, within the noise of an index of this kind. What the figure really shows is the scale: a model's absolute number on the index depends on the index version as much as on the model. Code 1 does the arithmetic of the drops.
# Índice de Inteligência da Artificial Analysis: os mesmos modelos, duas réguas
v42 = { # leitura de 4 de setembro (v4.2)
"Claude Fable 5.1": 65.7, "Claude Opus 5": 63.0, "GPT-6 Astra": 61.2,
"GPT-5.6 Sol": 58.9, "GLM-5.3-Flash": 57.5, "GPT-5.6 Terra": 55.0,
}
v43 = { # artigo de 7 de setembro (v4.3)
"Claude Fable 5.1": 53, "Claude Opus 5": 51, "GPT-6 Astra": 53,
"GPT-5.6 Sol": 47, "GLM-5.3-Flash": 42, "GPT-5.6 Terra": 42,
}
abertos = {"GLM-5.3-Flash"}
print(f"{'modelo':18}{'v4.2':>6}{'v4.3':>6}{'queda':>7}")
for m in v42:
print(f"{m:18}{v42[m]:>6.1f}{v43[m]:>6}{v42[m] - v43[m]:>7.1f}")
fechados = [v42[m] - v43[m] for m in v42 if m not in abertos]
print(f"\nqueda média dos fechados: {sum(fechados) / len(fechados):.1f}")
print(f"queda do aberto (GLM-5.3-Flash): {v42['GLM-5.3-Flash'] - v43['GLM-5.3-Flash']:.1f}")
print(f"modelos com índice >= 55 na v4.3: {sum(v >= 55 for v in v43.values())}")modelo v4.2 v4.3 queda
Claude Fable 5.1 65.7 53 12.7
Claude Opus 5 63.0 51 12.0
GPT-6 Astra 61.2 53 8.2
GPT-5.6 Sol 58.9 47 11.9
GLM-5.3-Flash 57.5 42 15.5
GPT-5.6 Terra 55.0 42 13.0
queda média dos fechados: 11.6
queda do aberto (GLM-5.3-Flash): 15.5
modelos com índice >= 55 na v4.3: 0Run on 23 October 2026 with Python 3.13. Values from figure 2.
Closed models fell 11.6 points on average; the only open model in the sample, GLM-5.3-Flash, fell 15.5. One model supports no conclusion, but the direction is what you would expect from an index that gives more weight to what nobody saw before: a private test is less exposed to contamination, and whoever would have benefited from leaked test data loses more when it weighs less. It is a hypothesis, and the next version of the index will test it on its own.
The cut the panel used
The output's last line is the one that forces us to correct the panel. The “permissive open price” indicator read the lowest price among MIT or Apache 2.0 models with an index ≥ 55. On v4.3, no model, open or closed, reaches 55. Instead of lowering the cut to where the numbers fell — and lowering it again at the next version —, the indicator now follows the highest-ranked permissive open model on the index, whatever its score. Today it is GLM-5.3-Flash itself, at index 42, at US$ 0.50 per million output tokens. The value did not change; the method did. The series restarts in this edition, and the panel says so next to the number.
Two scoreboards, two measures of the same model
On Terminal-Bench 4.0, the independent measurement gave GPT-6 Astra more than OpenAI had — and gave competitors numbers different from the ones OpenAI published. On SWE-bench Science, Astra passed Opus 5 by three bugs.
At GPT-6 Astra's launch, OpenAI published a table with its own model and competitors on Terminal-Bench 4.0: 57.9% for Astra, 55.8% for Claude Fable 5.1, 44.5% for Claude Opus 5 and 37.3% for GPT-5.6 Sol.8 That was the number no. 1 used. On the same 7 September when we closed that edition, Artificial Analysis published its own measurement, with a stated protocol: all 66 tasks, three runs, average pass@1.6 Figure 3 puts the two side by side.
Artificial Analysis ran each model at its maximum available effort. The two sides did not use the same harness.
See the data
| OpenAI, at launch | Artificial Analysis | |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Astra | 57.9% | 59.1% |
| Claude Fable 5.1 | 55.8% | 52.0% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 44.5% | 49.0% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 37.3% | 39.9% |
None of the gaps is a scandal: with 66 tasks, each one is worth 1.5 points, and three of them cover the figure's largest distance. The point is another. A launch table puts together numbers from different origins without saying which is which: OpenAI's gave Fable 5.1 almost four points more and Opus 5 four and a half fewer than the independent measurement, and it does not say who ran those rows, or how. The order among the four did not change; the distance between them did.
There is a third source, which no. 1 did not read either: the official leaderboard, on the Terminal-Bench site, where each lab submits its own agent — Codex, Claude Code — with five runs per task. There, Fable 5.1 at maximum effort shows 57.9% since 3 September; Astra, 58.2%, in a row created the same day and updated on 10 September; Opus 5, 51.8%.16 They are the labs' own numbers, but on a common protocol and with a published confidence interval — about three points either way, which covers almost every gap in figure 3.
Three bugs ahead
On SWE-bench Science — the 119 real scientific-software bugs no. 1 introduced —, GPT-6 Astra entered the leaderboard on 10 September at 50.42%, running in Codex at maximum effort. The previous leader, Claude Opus 5, had 47.90%.9 In tasks: 60 against 57. By the noise arithmetic we did in no. 1, whose confidence interval is almost eighteen points wide in this range, three tasks do not separate two models. The leaderboard has a new first place; the measure has no new champion.
The lesson of both measures is the same as the previous movement's, by another road: a benchmark number compares only with another measured by the same group, with the same harness, on the same version. That is why the panel says, next to each reading, who measured it. In this edition the Terminal-Bench 4.0 ceiling moves to 59.1%, independent, and the SWE-bench Science one to 50.42%.
The call the panel did not count
The day before the Macaíba tender, CNPq opened R$ 50 million to place master's and PhD researchers in AI startups. No. 1 missed it. With it, Brazil's AI Plan has R$ 1.009 billion in tenders — 4.4% of what was announced.
On 19 August, the Official Gazette published CNPq Call no. 29/2026, RHAE IA — Researcher in the Company. It is R$ 50 million from FNDCT for grants that bring master's and PhD researchers into research projects at micro and small companies and AI startups, up to R$ 300 thousand per proposal. Its object declares Brazil's AI Plan (Axis 4, AI for business innovation) and Nova Indústria Brasil; at least 30% of the money goes to companies in the North, Northeast and Center-West. Proposals closed on 9 October; the final result is scheduled for December.11
The next day, 20 August, FACC published Selection no. 27/2026, the Macaíba AI supercomputer for LNCC: R$ 959,040,959.04.12 That was the number no. 1 read as “PBIA tendered”. The CNPq call, published a day earlier with the same plan in its object, was left out. Code 2 redoes the sum.
# PBIA: o que já virou edital com valor fixo e prazo, em R$
editais = [
("2026-08-19", 50_000_000.00, "RHAE IA, CNPq/FNDCT, Chamada 29/2026"),
("2026-08-20", 959_040_959.04, "Supercomputador de IA, FACC/LNCC, Seleção 27/2026"),
]
total = sum(valor for _, valor, _ in editais)
for data, valor, nome in editais:
print(f"{data} R$ {valor / 1e6:>9,.2f} mi {nome}")
print(f"{'total':10} R$ {total / 1e6:>9,.2f} mi")
print(f"fração dos R$ 23 bi anunciados para 2024-2028: {total / 23e9:.1%}")2026-08-19 R$ 50.00 mi RHAE IA, CNPq/FNDCT, Chamada 29/2026
2026-08-20 R$ 959.04 mi Supercomputador de IA, FACC/LNCC, Seleção 27/2026
total R$ 1,009.04 mi
fração dos R$ 23 bi anunciados para 2024-2028: 4.4%Run on 23 October 2026 with Python 3.13. The output uses Python's decimal separator (a point).
R$ 1.009 billion, 4.4% of the R$ 23 billion announced for 2024–2028. Table 3 shows what goes into the sum and what does not. The BNDES and Finep AI investment fund stays out under the indicator's rule, even though it moved this week: on 14 September, the two picked Monashees as its manager, out of 17 proposals.15 The fund is expected to raise up to R$ 500 million, but the public commitment is a ceiling — up to R$ 125 million from BNDESPar and up to R$ 80 million from FNDCT/Finep —, and the money only exists once the fund is raised.
| Instrument | Body | Published | Deadline | Value | Counts? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI supercomputer (Macaíba) | FACC/LNCC, Finep funds | 20 Aug 2026 | 8 Oct 2026 | R$ 959.04M | Yes |
| RHAE IA | CNPq/FNDCT | 19 Aug 2026 | 9 Oct 2026 | R$ 50M | Yes |
| FIP IA | BNDES and Finep | 9 Apr 2026 | 28 May 2026 | Commitment range | No |
The FIP IA call provided for commitments of R$ 40 to 125 million from BNDESPar and R$ 40 to 80 million from Finep, in a fund of at least R$ 160 million. The Macaíba deadline is the one in force then: bids were later postponed to 4 November.
We corrected no. 1's reading from R$ 959 million to R$ 1.009 billion, and the panel shows the correction next to the number. It is also in the Method's corrections log. The error was one of search, not of rule: the call was on CNPq's site, published before that edition closed, and we did not find it.
In Congress, nothing. PL 2338/2023 remains in the Chamber “awaiting the opinion” of its rapporteur, deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), appointed in May 2025. The last movements were on 1 and 2 September, two attachments of other bills — PL 3060/2026 among them.13 In the week of 8 to 14 September, the record showed no movement.
What to watch
Bids open for the Macaíba supercomputer, postponed from 8 October. It is the first test of whether the R$ 959 million of PBIA's largest tendered item become a contract.17
Launch of DeepSeek V4.1-Pro, which ends the
deepseek-v4-prorerouting — and whether another major provider serves an existing name with another model, at another price (judgment 1).1Final result of the RHAE IA call in the Official Gazette, scheduled for December: how many projects and how much of the R$ 50 million was actually committed (judgment 5).11
The Agents API without the
betaprefix and the beta header (judgment 2); the next version of the Intelligence Index and the size of the jump in scores (judgment 3).5,6First place on SWE-bench Science. If another model passes GPT-6 Astra's 50.42% by more than three tasks, judgment 4 is confirmed; by less, it is noise.9
Last edition's judgments, revisited
- 1
For 2026-class agentic work, cost per token no longer decides between closed and open. What decides is domain reliability, governance of the reasoning, and where the model runs.
- 2
The ~100× gap between the closed frontier and permissive open models should persist for the next two quarters: closed labs are pricing reasoning and agency, not tokens, and open labs are pricing adoption.
- 3
SWE-bench Verified no longer discriminates between frontier models; small-sample domain leaderboards do not separate the top five either. Whoever decides a purchase needs their own evaluation.
- 4
Chain-of-thought monitorability will keep falling in flagships. “Reading the reasoning” should not be treated as a safety control in any production system.
- 5
The Macaíba supercomputer will probably be contracted in 2026; it is unlikely to operate by the announced date (end of 2027), given three postponements and the absence of operating costs in the tender.
Sources
- 1DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash release and model routing noticeArchitecture, active parameters per phase, license, and the `deepseek-v4-pro` rerouting from 14 September.
- 2DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash — model cardWeights and MIT license. The repository metadata indicate 763 billion parameters.
- 3Models & PricingRead on the publication date: it still lists V4-Pro (0813) at its own price.
- 4API changelogEntries of 8 and 10 September: Agents API in public beta, project key expiration, GPT-Live 1, cache diagnostics.
- 5Agents API — overviewDurable session, streaming and webhooks, MCP, self-hosted sandbox; beta namespace and header. The page is undated; we use the changelog's date.
- 6Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3Composition changes, v4.3 scores, and Terminal-Bench 4.0 measured independently (66 tasks, three runs).
- 7Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index — leaderboard mirrorv4.2 scores to one decimal place, three days before the change.
- 8Introducing GPT-6 AstraLaunch table with Terminal-Bench 4.0 for Astra and competitors, run by OpenAI.
- 9SWE-bench Science — leaderboardAstra's entry date comes from the leaderboard repository's history.
- 10GPT-6 Astra — ARC Prize VerifiedResults with the standard harness and with the Provider Adapter, cost per run, and the caveat that they are not comparable.
- 11Chamada CNPq/SETEC/SETAD/MCTI/FNDCT nº 29/2026 — RHAE IAObject, total value, per-proposal cap, regional quota and schedule.
- 12LNCC conduz implantação de supercomputador de inteligência artificial que ampliará a capacidade computacional do BrasilAnnouncement of the tender, published by FACC on 20 August, with the value of R$ 959,040,959.04.
- 13PL 2338/2023 — ficha de tramitaçãoStatus, rapporteur and the attachment of PL 3060/2026.
- 14FIP IA 2026 — chamada pública para seleção de fundosDeadlines, commitment ranges and the selected manager.
- 15BNDES e Finep elegem gestora de fundo de Inteligência Artificial de R$ 500 milhõesMonashees chosen, number of proposals, commitment ceilings. Press; the numbers match the BNDES call.
- 16Terminal-Bench 4.0 — leaderboardLab submissions, five runs per task, with confidence intervals. Each row's creation and update dates from the data embedded in the page.
- 17Seleção Pública nº 27/2026 — HPC para IAPublished in the Official Gazette on 20 August; read on this edition's publication date, it shows the session on 4 Nov 2026, 10:00, and Errata 01.
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